2016-2050: See how the car will liberate your hands and body

Auto-driving cars are coming, faster than you think. But when will we arrive? How do you get there?

After interviewing many autopilot industry practitioners, foreign media Recode listed an autopilot change outlook map. Today, Xiaobian will explain this map to everyone. I believe that after reading it, you will have a clearer understanding of the future development of autonomous driving.

2016

Today, we can see the most advanced semi-automatic driving technology in Tesla and other self-driving cars that free the hands of drivers. These self-driving cars use a range of sensors and cameras to enable automatic driving, automatic parking, and automatic braking.

The best carrier of this technology is the truck that runs on the highway. Companies such as Peloton and NXP are now testing self-driving truck fleets to allow automatic communication between cars and cars, and a "leading" truck leads a fleet of trucks.

In addition, Google and Ford are testing autonomous driving technology. Test sites include dedicated test lanes, as well as cities with good traffic such as Austin, Texas, Mountain View, and California. These test cars travel at low speeds (about 25 miles per hour) and collect data on pedestrians and drivers while driving, while also testing autonomous driving techniques at night, rain, snow and the like.

On the other hand, the legal regulatory authorities have also issued a series of policies to support autopilot testing. In the United States, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration is expected to introduce semi-automatic and fully automated vehicle supervision programs this year.

2017~2019

The driving assistant function will become more mature and will combine GPS and navigation functions. Therefore, the driver should enter the destination while driving and open the road map for real-time follow-up to let the car drive automatically. In some cases, the driver is still required to go into battle.

The US Highway Traffic Safety Administration will begin a policy of fully automated driverless vehicle testing. At the same time, companies such as Google will increase the scope of testing and collect more data, including any situation that will be encountered by autonomous vehicles. Map companies will collect as much 3D data as possible in large cities, and automakers and technology companies will develop technologies that allow light detection, radar sensors, cameras, GPS, etc. to operate simultaneously, ensuring that when a feature fails to function, Another feature can operate independently.

These companies will test vehicles in any climate and environment, from cities with reduced vehicle density to cities with dense vehicles. However, in these cities, the vehicle will travel very slowly.

Commercial trucks will be the first autopilot to be used if national and federal regulators allow it to be on the road.

2020

Cars with semi-automatic driving will be able to navigate automatically and drive freely in front of traffic lights, at intersections, and on roads that require time to park, which means they can leave the highway and be able to walk without a pedestrian. Driving on the road.

Highly self-driving cars can travel automatically, but drivers are also required to sit in the car to prevent an emergency (for example, hitting a roadside fence, etc.). Uber and Lyft are also expected to use autonomous vehicles in certain locations, such as cities with highly developed maps or smaller locations (such as university campuses). Truck fleets on the highways will become quite popular. Any city planner will be heavier and need to coordinate different forms of traffic (from ordinary public transport to self-driving vehicles) on the same road. Insurance companies and regulators will introduce some liability regulations.

2020~2025

The semi-automatic driving function will be suitable for more situations (like night or rain), but car manufacturers can't really move these technologies to urban roads. What they are more concerned about is long-distance transportation.

Automated driving technology will enter the market, which means that car manufacturers, drivers and regulators will reach a turning point. What is certain is that for car buyers, a fully-automated car will be more attractive than a car that swings in manual and automatic driving modes.

And Uber and other network car dealers will start using completely unmanned cars. These cars can only be stopped when they are refueling, passengers get on the bus, passengers get off, and they can drive at other times. And this also means that the life of these cars will be greatly reduced.

And the government needs to reconsider the way urban planning and design. Can a self-driving car and pedestrians share a road? Do infrastructure such as traffic lights need to communicate with cars? Since you can automatically control and summon a car parked in a remote garage, why do you have to build a garage at home?

At the same time, automakers still need to figure out some very important things: cars must understand human signals, such as pedestrians waving, but also need to use signal lights and language commands to communicate with pedestrians.

2025~2030

The semi-automatic driving function will continue to improve, but it will become less interesting as the autonomous driving business model has expanded in the direction of fully automated driving. Imagine the development of the VCR industry after the DVD dominates, so I know why I said this.

Since most cars are fully automated, car sales will decline: more and more car consumers will rely on shared car service, or there will be a lot of people using a car together. However, we can still see the situation where residents in the suburbs and rural areas purchase vehicles separately or use several vehicles together with the same community. As for where these self-driving cars can be used, there will be fewer restrictions, and there will be more restrictions on manual driving.

Automakers, like mobile phone manufacturers, need to find new ways to increase their profitability. They need to embark on the road of technology, otherwise they will be eliminated by the times.

2030~2045

Automakers will stop making cars without any autopilot features. This trend will continue to increase as people become more dependent on shared vehicle services and the number of individual car ownership decreases.

At the same time, full manual driving will be increasingly used in areas such as racing or lane testing. Driving your own car will become a hobby or a luxury.

2045~2050

In general, the life of a car is 15 years (of course, this depends on the use of the car). So if automakers start producing only fully automated cars in 2030 and don't produce any traditional manual cars, the roads will be a hodgepodge of manual, semi-automatic and automated cars. It is not until 2045 that the road will be completely occupied by autonomous vehicles.

The regulatory and insurance industry will have to act before this turning point. They must introduce safety standards and must also develop a series of laws and regulations such as autonomous vehicle traffic accidents.

At that time, the city will become completely different. The sidewalk can disappear as pedestrians and cars will drive and walk on the same road. The downtown car park will also be abandoned and the car park will be moved outside the city centre. At the same time, traffic signals and infrastructure may disappear. Instead, they are smaller and cheaper devices that will only communicate with the car because there are no drivers on the car.

Recode interviews include Axel Gern, head of Mercedes-Benz Autopilot North America, Erik Coelingh, Volvo Safety and Driving Support Technology Senior Leader, Stefan Heck, founder of Nauto, Amnon Shashua, co-founder and CTO of Mobileye, and founder and CEO Sascha Simon of Driversi Wait.