Data analysis tells you why Messi can't score

In the game of Argentina vs Iceland, Messi's performance caused countless complaints. Not only did he miss a penalty, he was still "walking" most of the time. But analysis based on the data shows that Messi even runs better than most people run. He is like an efficient machine, figuring out how to occupy the most valuable space with the least energy.

Portugal and Argentina are undoubtedly the two most watched teams in the World Cup, and their players-Ronaldo and Messi are also one of the most watched star players.

Both Ronaldo and Messi have completed their 2018 World Cup appearances. However, the performance of the two was quite different: Ronaldo played a hat-trick against Spain, helping Portugal 3-3 draw with Spain; and Messi missed a penalty in the game against Iceland. The team missed the chance to win.

Not only that, but also a set of numbers: Cristiano Ronaldo ran 8.7 kilometers in the match against Spain, with a top speed of 33.98 kilometers / hour. When Messi faced the Iceland team, the running distance was only 7.6 kilometers. 83% of the time was "walking", and the top speed did not exceed 25 kilometers per hour.

Messi made 11 shots in the audience, only 3 shots, no goals. Moreover, he also missed a penalty kick.

2018 World Cup, Argentina vs Iceland, Messi kicked a penalty, the final score was set to 1: 1

The highly anticipated man

Since becoming the youngest Argentine player to score in the World Cup 12 years ago, Messi has won more Golden Globe trophies than anyone before him-this is an honor awarded to the best player in the world. Fans of this generation also remember that Messi has set the record for the most goals in a year. He is the number one shooter in the history of Spanish La Liga.

Although the World Cup lost in the first game, Messi ’s performance in this year ’s Spanish Football League season was full of oppression:

However, due to the current superficial analysis of football, we can hardly understand how Messi did this. Especially looking at Messi ’s actions: Messi may have more time with the ball than other players, but like all players, he spends most of his time in running without the ball, looking for a position, for his teammates Create space. This is an integral part of the football game, but most of us know very little.

Everyone can see the result-the number of goals, but the process of scoring (or not scoring) has been ignored-our attention is focused on Messi ’s performance when he takes the ball, and when When the ball left Messi, our attention also left Messi.

Messi, striker who "walks" on the pitch

Throughout his career, Messi has been criticized for "walking" rather than "running" on the court.

In December 2017, after a classic match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, one thing widely reported by the media was that Messi moved a distance of about 5 miles on the field, of which 83% were "walking" (with This time the World Cup played against Iceland). Despite this, Messi scored not only goals but also assists, and Barcelona won 3-0.

This season's Champions League (the only game with basic running data published), Messi also ran less than other elite strikers, averaging 5 miles less every 90 minutes.

Of course, the distance you run depends largely on the team you play for and your role in the team. Teams that adopt a defensive strategy tend to run longer distances, and some tactical styles will allow forwards to run more-Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino who adopts high-pressing tactics , Ran nearly 7 miles every 90 minutes.

However, Real Madrid, like Barcelona, ​​will not particularly launch a pressure tactic in the opponent's half, but Ronaldo runs 1/5 miles more than Messi.

An efficient machine: only Messi figured out how to run less than others to win

In the 2017-18 Champions League season, among forwards who contributed at least 5 goals and assists, the ratio of the distance traveled every 90 minutes and the contribution rate of goals and assists

In fact, we already know this characteristic of Messi: In the report of the 2014 World Cup, Ken Early said: "Only Messi figured out how to move less than others to win the game."

After Argentina lost to the German team in the finals, Benjamin Morris wrote an analysis to FiveThirtyEight. The most popular explanation is that Messi used walking (rather than running) to save energy at critical moments, just like a very efficient Machine.

But new research shows that even when Messi is walking, he is far from idling. Luke Bornn, vice president of strategy and analysis for the NBA basketball team and Sacramento Kings, and Javier Fernandez, a data scientist at FC Barcelona, ​​presented their research results at this year's MIT Sloan Sports Analysis Conference to help us understand this phenomenon.

Analysis of football games based on location data: Messi ’s “passive” venue acquisition strategy

Football is essentially a field and mobile game, so Born and Fernandez used the location data to design a model to assess the player ’s possession and generation of the field.

Analysis report of Bornn and Fernandez

"We can see the position of each player and the ball at every moment, and infer how the player's movement creates a venue for themselves and others," Bornn said. "We can also see whether they are active or passive. To do this, 'active' means actively running into an empty field, and 'passive' means occupying a high-value position when the battle situation shifts. "

The "high-value locations" mentioned by Bornn refer to another part of their research. They quantified the value of each area on the court to both teams. A basic measure is the distance from the goal, but after discussing with the Barcelona experts, Bornn and Fernandez realized that the value of the field on the court will change dynamically based on the position of the player and the ball.

As a result, they took a completely new approach to extract field value based on the behavior of the defensive team. In general, players on the defensive side will consider cutting off the most dangerous areas relative to the position of the ball.

The following animation shows how Messi passively occupied the field for Barcelona's right wing. Pay attention to comparing the dynamic analysis of Bornn and Fernandez:

Messi passively helps the team occupy the field

Using data from Barcelona and Villarreal in the La Liga in January 2017 in these models, Bornn and Fernandez found that Busquets (midfielder), Ine Star (midfielder) and Messi (forward).

They divided this field gain into two types: "active" and "passive". In the former case, the player is moving at the speed of running, while in the latter case it is not.

Iniesta and Busquets are passive 43% and 52% of the time, respectively, while Messi ’s figure is about 66%. In other words, Messi is walking most of the time on the court, but even if he is only walking, Messi is walking in a valuable place, guarding the field to help the team, waiting for the ball to approach him.

Bornn and Fernandez also studied the generation and reception of the field, that is, a moving player, by bringing the opposing team's defender over to create a field for his teammates.

In the same game, Messi, Suarez and Neymar are the three biggest players in Barcelona that can create a venue. The three of them scattered on the court in a powerful 4-3-3 formation in Barcelona, ​​forcing the defenders to follow them closely. Bornn and Fernandez also found that Messi and Suarez had a "special connection" and each created quite a large venue for each other.

Occupation and generation of the venue during the game. From left to right: In the first picture on the left, Iniesta moves backwards, occupies a valuable venue, and has higher control. In the second picture in the middle, Iniesta observed an open / blank field to attack. He moved there, driving three defenders. In the third picture on the right, the three defenders who were taken away left Messi with an open space, allowing Messi to receive the ball, while Suarez ran to the goal line and got a pass. Source: Bornn and Fernandez research report

Even if walking, it runs better than most people

Whether Messi consciously decided to use walking instead of running to passively win the field is difficult to determine.

"Can we say that Messi gained more venues by not running on the field? Yes, this is what our research shows." Bornn said. "But did he do it on purpose? This is only to ask Messi himself."

In the 2018 World Cup, if Argentina qualify (according to some previous predictions, Argentina will play against Germany in the quarter-finals), Messi will receive more attention and review than ever before. This time the penalty was undoubtedly disappointing many people. We are used to watching his dazzling passing, dribbling and accurate shots.

But when the ball is not in Messi, we should also pay attention to him, especially when he is slowly moving-Messi is never "going" on the court; he is just waiting for the opportunity to move.