Analysis of development trend of new energy vehicles

"In the case of the gradual withdrawal of the monetization support policy, the policy of using follow-up and other succession needs to study in advance and grasp the layout. Different forms of local protectionism still exist, and some cities set up local catalogues, resulting in a large space for consumers to choose models. Compression has caused the market to split and inhibited the vitality of development." At the recently opened 2018 Electric Vehicle Hundred Peoples Forum (hereinafter referred to as the "Hundred People's Association"), the Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei made a lot of meetings. The person has resonated.

In 2017, the output of China's new energy vehicles was 794,000, and the sales volume was 777,000. The output accounted for 2.7% of the total domestic automobile production. Among them, new energy passenger cars sold a total of about 580,000 vehicles.

China's new energy vehicle sales have ranked first in the world for three consecutive years, but local protection in the development of new energy vehicles is still prevalent, and policy-oriented results are obvious. Some analysts believe that when the era of new energy vehicles is far away, a sound, unified, fair, and full competition mechanism has not yet been formed nationwide. This may become the "Aka" that restricts the entry of China's new energy vehicles into the popularization stage. The title of Muse."

"Electrification of the power system has always been an eternal issue. Regardless of whether it is pure electric, plug-in electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel electric vehicles, the process is irreversible. It is estimated that the long time is related to hybrid (plug-in hybrid)." At the 100-member meeting, Zhang Wei, deputy general manager and CTO of Keliyuan Hybrid Power Technology Co., Ltd. made such a judgment.

At home, Zhang Wei’s views are not lacking in supporters. In the opinion of the industry, although the threshold of plug-in hybrid technology is relatively high, in the objective case where the number of charging facilities does not match the scale of new energy vehicles, the battery and charging technology are not perfect, and the mileage of pure electric vehicles is limited. For a long time, plug-in hybrids will be an effective transition solution to solve the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicle users.

"I hope to further implement the national policy requirements for new energy vehicles without restrictions and unlimited purchases." At the 100-member meeting, the proposal of BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu seemed to be somewhat helpless. "Now some regions have not subsidized new energy vehicles, and some cities are still Plug-in hybrids take restrictions."

Wang Chuanfu’s proposal is not groundless. In China, although there is a certain market demand, plug-in hybrid vehicles have encountered very different situations in some cities.

According to the "New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market Report for the First Half of 2017" released by Wilson Automotive Data Consulting, in the first half of 2017, Beijing's pure electric new energy vehicle market accounted for 98.1%, while plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles Only 1.9%. In Shanghai, pure electric new energy vehicles accounted for 25.9%, and plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles accounted for 74.1%.

Some analysts said that plug-in hybrid vehicles in some cities have a dramatic sales gap, reflecting not the real needs of consumers, but policy-oriented.

According to the relevant policies of Beijing, plug-in hybrid vehicles neither enjoy local financial subsidies nor enjoy “unlimited” preferential treatment, nor can they participate in the sway of new energy vehicles. The policy restrictions directly allow plug-in hybrid vehicles to be Excluded from new energy vehicles.

According to the “Notice on Continued Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2013, new energy vehicle models that enjoy the scope of central financial subsidies should be pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuels that meet the requirements. Battery car. According to this regulation, all cities that promote and operate new energy vehicles should pay corresponding subsidies to pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

According to the data, in addition to Beijing, in most cities across the country, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles are the same, they can enjoy local subsidy policy. In cities where Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shanghai and other motor vehicles are restricted, plug-in hybrid vehicles can also apply for licenses directly, without having to participate in the traditional energy vehicle.

Some people believe that for the benefit of the region, tailoring subsidy policies for local enterprises not only limits the research and development vitality of car companies, but also leads to the emergence of bad money to expel good money, and further deviates from the country’s determination to develop new energy vehicles. Original intention. At the same time, this is also a disregard for consumers to choose their rights.

The pure electric plug-in refusal is only a projection of the local protectionism of new energy vehicles. In fact, although the national three-and-a-half application does not allow setting local protection thresholds, the "weird phenomenon" of the new energy vehicle policies in each region is still banned.

At the National Conference in 2017, Wang Fengying, deputy of the National People's Congress and president of Great Wall Motor, submitted a proposal on “Removing local protection and creating a more equitable new energy vehicle market environment”.

According to Wang Fengying's statistics, as of the end of February 2017, at least nine new energy vehicle promotion pilot cities still set up local “small catalogues” under the name of filing, and privately retained the access restrictions of local markets, resulting in high standards for some foreign brands. High quality products are difficult to access local markets.

Many local governments have imposed binding conditions on foreign companies entering the local market. For example, it is necessary to register local legal entities and build new automobile production bases, which will result in low-level redundant construction and inefficient and wasteful investment.

There are still “invisible thresholds” for local protection of new energy vehicles. Non-technical indicators outside the scope of national policies are formulated to be more inclined to local enterprises, or technical indicators that are higher than national policy standards are used to exclude foreign enterprises. The proposal proposes that at least four cities have separated the local market by specifying the upper limit of the fuel tank and formulating a warranty period far higher than the central policy standard.

It is reported that in 2018, the local protection policy for new energy vehicles is expected to usher in icebreaking. At the end of 2017, Lu Huaping, assistant secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, revealed that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is brewing further tightening. The Chinese government is studying to adjust the central financial subsidy policy in 2018, tending to encourage high-mileage, low-energy vehicles. At the same time, the cancellation of local subsidies is also a high probability event.

At the 100-member meeting, Miao Wei’s speech once again confirmed this point. "Everyone is worried that the subsidy policy will be adjusted. In fact, this adjustment is imperative." Miao Wei said, "If we all pile up to a one-time adjustment by the end of 2020, it is better to release this adjustment pressure in sections to make everyone Can smoothly pass the impact of this decline."

On the one hand, the elimination of local subsidies helps create a level playing field and promote the survival of the fittest. On the other hand, the increase in the strength of the retreat will force the enterprises to rapidly upgrade the technical level, and promote the competition of new energy vehicles to return to the normal track of “talking with products”.

"From the perspective of market share, after the implementation of the double-points policy, electric vehicles entered the popularization stage." Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview that "in the popularization stage, local protection must be broken to form a unified market. The most important way to break the local protection is to cancel the local subsidies for car purchases and turn to support for the construction and charging of charging facilities."

Then, will subsidies fall back to change the industrial environment prevailing in local protection? Some insiders believe that the elimination of local subsidies for new energy vehicles is by no means the "last mile" of local protectionism. It is the only way to establish a healthy competitive environment by completely breaking the "short-sighted behavior" of local protection of new energy vehicles and returning the development of new energy vehicles from "policy-oriented" to "market-oriented". Breaking new energy local protectionism undoubtedly requires stricter policy design and strong regulatory and punitive measures.

“We need a long-term, stable legal framework. Based on this, we need to establish a corresponding and continuous mechanism to deal with the market. We will further understand what the demand in the Chinese market is after 2025? We need to constantly Revise the perception of the existing electric vehicle market.” At the 100-person conference, Hezman, director of the Volkswagen Group and president and CEO of China, said that he hopes that policies and laws will give auto companies a better competitive environment and market environment.