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From the current situation, EnergyTrend estimates that the conversion efficiency of 17% to 17.2% in August may fall below US$0.45 per watt, while the conversion efficiency of 16.8% to 17% will fall below US$0.4 per watt.
The subsidy policies based on countries such as Germany, Italy, and Bulgaria have gradually contracted and have affected the operating conditions of European customers. The relevant manufacturers stated that due to continued bearishness in the European market, coupled with the unfavorable operating conditions of some customers, previous estimates Orders can see changes in the situation in mid-August and begin to appear to be going down.
On the other hand, the development of the European PV market has become more conservative in the second half of the year. Manufacturers' recent quotation has apparently returned. According to the feedback from manufacturers, the current offer price for conversion efficiency of 17% has dropped to $0.45 per watt, while the conversion efficiency of 16.8% has the opportunity to fall below $0.4 per watt. The rapid decline in prices in the near future also led customers to wait and see. According to the normal process, the August order that should have been negotiated has already been delayed. The relevant manufacturers stated that the level of the order revision in August is still unclear, and the actual situation will not become clear until the end of July.
Due to the declining demand in the European PV market and the inability of emerging PV market to rapidly increase, the recent adoption rate of relevant manufacturers has been significantly reduced. According to interviews, the current production rate of major manufacturers is about 70% to 80%. %, while the remaining second and third line manufacturers have a production rate of around 60%. Although Japan's photovoltaic market has high hopes, Japan's photovoltaic market still needs long-term cultivation. It is not easy. At present, only some manufacturers are expected to benefit from the growth of Japan's photovoltaic market and maintain better capacity utilization.
According to an interview with EnergyTrend, a Green Energy analysis division of TrendForce, although the order status of each plant is still good in July, facing the order status in August, the relevant manufacturers stated that they have been affected by changes in European policy and have apparently felt a decline. On the other hand, the recent spot price trend has also seen a significant decline. The solar energy industry in August is not expected to flourish in the busy season.