The High-tech Industry Research Institute released the monthly export prosperity index of the LED lighting industry!

I. Overview

China is a major producer and exporter of LED lighting products in the world, and the LED lighting export situation can reflect the overall development of China's LED industry to a certain extent.

The High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) has established a monthly economic boom index for China's LED lighting industry after a five-month data model deduction.

The index mainly studies the change trend of the product export scale index by monitoring the scale, price, quantity and product model of the customs export products, and then combines the LED industry raw material price, the enterprise LED export business revenue and the export exchange rate.

High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII)

All index values ​​range from 40 to 60, with 50 being the threshold of the prosperity index. When the prosperity index is greater than the critical value, it indicates that the economic situation tends to rise or improve, and is in a prosperous state; when the prosperity index is less than the critical value, it indicates The economic situation tends to decline or worsen and is in a state of recession.

The specific criteria are: 58 or more for the “very prosperous” interval, [58, 53) for the “relatively prosperous” interval, [53, 50) for the “boom” interval, and (50, 47) for the “depression” interval, ( 47, 42] is the "less sluggish" interval, (42, 40) is the "very bad" interval.

Second, the reference indicators

Leading indicators: exchange rate fluctuations of RMB against the US dollar, price fluctuations of packaged devices 2835 (10-24), 2835 (54-61), 3030 (100-120), and 5630 (25-35); Consistency indicators: LED bulbs The export scale of seven representative products, panel lights, downlights, lamps, spotlights, street lamps and floodlights, LED industry key enterprises (5 chips, 7 packages, 5 lighting) LED export business revenue.

Third, the calculation method

The prosperity index selected seven representative export product scales for calculation. The calculation method is to use the diffusion index method. The calculation specimens of the LED lighting product export scale index are all derived from the customs export data of China's LED lighting products, and then passed through the LED industry. The calculation model eliminates the abnormal fluctuation data by algorithm design and finally falls into the category of index calculation.

The specific index calculation method is as follows: assign different weights to each option respectively (given the "growth" option weight to 1, assign the "unchanged" option weight to 0.5, assign the "down" option weight to 0), and the proportion of each option. Multiply by the corresponding weights and add up to the final index. In the same way, the exchange rate index and the raw material index are calculated, and then the LED export business income of the enterprise is combined, and finally the monthly export prosperity index of the LED lighting industry is obtained.


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