Insufficient kinetic energy in new thermal power projects

Near the end of the year, the National Development and Reform Commission once again accelerated the review of new projects.

On December 3, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the approval of eight power-related engineering projects, including a power plant “large and small pressure” expansion project, a new gas-fired power station project, two power transmission and transformation projects, and expansion of four substations. Engineering, dynamic investment totaled 113.73 billion yuan.

"In the second half of this year, the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission have done a lot of work to promote power generation companies to accelerate the pre-project work and submit their approvals. At present, it seems that the speed of approval has also accelerated," a person from the Huaneng Group told reporters.

However, compared with the projects that obtained the “Road”, thermal power projects that have been audited and started immediately are still few. A number of power companies insiders admit that despite the decline in coal prices this year, but the power price system has not been rationalized, the power companies are still generally worried, so the enthusiasm of new projects is not high.

Many projects only approved

The largest amount of investment in the above-mentioned approved projects was CLP's Jiangsu Changshu Power Generation Co., Ltd.'s “Shangmao Small Press” expansion project, with a total dynamic investment of approximately 7.89 billion yuan. The project will build two 1 million kilowatt domestically-made super-supercritical coal-fired generating units.

Some time ago, the National Development and Reform Commission successively approved the Zengneng Group Taizhou Power Plant 2×100 million kilowatts “Shangda Big Down Small” project and Huadian Shaanxi Yuheng Power Plant Phase I two 660,000 kilowatts domestically made supercritical coal-fired generating units etc. Batch project.

According to data previously released by the National Energy Administration, the scale of thermal power projects that have been agreed to carry out preliminary work has reached 120 million kilowatts, which is the highest level in the same period of the previous year. However, 55% of the project's pre-work time has exceeded 20 months. It has not been able to meet the approval requirements, but it is also the highest level in the same period of the calendar year. However, one-third of the projects that have been approved have undergone slow progress in construction. There are many thermal power projects in Henan, Shanxi, Anhui, and Guizhou provinces that have not been approved for construction.

Coal's highs have fallen back this year, and thermal power profits have risen overall. However, the enthusiasm for the start of thermal power has not returned.

“We respond to the government's call to actively deploy the work to promote the development of thermal power. But now the profitability of thermal power projects is heavily constrained by the price of coal. The company’s internal review of the project is also very strict. The most important principle is to ensure the profitability level and build new thermal power in the future. The project mainly focuses on the Hangkou Coal-fired Power Base, the Hong Kong Electric Power Base Project, and gas-fired power generation and cogeneration projects, said the Huaneng Group source.

According to one person from another power central enterprise Datang Shaanxi Power Generation Co., “Capital is the biggest problem. The debt ratios of several major power companies are all around 80%. Power companies have poured into new energy fields in previous years. The investment is huge. New energy is also bleak now. The profit of thermal power is affected by the price of coal. Now several major central electric power companies have long been less able to make bank loans than they used to. Even if they want to build more new projects, they are also subject to investment capacity. Can slowly come.”

Power companies call for institutional adjustment

"This year's coal prices will come down, power generation will no longer be a loss, and the enthusiasm for investing in thermal power will increase. However, how long can the coal price stabilize? This one is also not clear. This year, coal prices will be combined, and the electricity price reform has been stagnant. In the future, the future of thermal power will be more severely affected by coal. Enterprises are indeed very worried.” The above-mentioned Huaneng Group told reporters, “We have been reflecting on this and we hope to rationalize the system.”

According to reporters from CEC sources, several major power central enterprises have already joined the China National Electricity Corporation in reporting to the National Development and Reform Commission, hoping that the coal power system will be able to jointly promote the reform of the electricity price system. At the very least, it will improve the coal-fired linkage policy. Clearly define the triggering start point of coal-fired linkage, and synchronize the implementation of the on-grid price with the sales price in the event that the price of coal increases by more than a certain extent.

"The two systems of electricity price and coal price, thermal power companies have no sense of security, the debt burden on power companies in recent years is getting heavier and heavier. This is caused by the double track of coal prices and electricity prices." The report submitted by the ITU to the NDRC also includes the hope that financial inflows of capital will be used to solve the problem of historical debts of power generation companies, reduce the asset-liability ratio of enterprises, and increase the capacity for sustainable development of enterprises.

Demand growth may slow down

For thermal power companies, in addition to capital and institutional issues, the delay in building thermal power projects has another concern: demand.

According to a person from the planning and development department of Datang Group, “Is the demand for electricity in the future able to maintain strong growth? We also need to make plans for the future power demand growth to slow down.”

According to the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment in China in 2010 and 2011 are 5031 hours and 5294 hours, respectively, which is far below the 5612 hours and 5344 hours in 2006 and 2007.

At the beginning of the end of last year, units such as the China Electric Power Association and the State Grid Corporation had estimated that the 8.6% compound growth rate of electricity consumption will reach 6.3 trillion kWh by 2015, and the National Energy Administration is expected to 6.4 trillion kWh.

However, if the GDP growth rate is expected to be 7.5% during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period announced in the government work report in March of this year, and the actual growth rate of total electricity consumption in the first half of 2012 is estimated to be 5.5%, the “12th Five-Year Plan” period will be fully implemented. The compound growth rate of social electricity consumption will not exceed 7.5%, which will also reduce the total social energy use at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to 6 trillion kWh.

A total of 0.4 trillion kilowatt-hours less is equivalent to 80 million kilowatts less thermal power per year. This means that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, on average, at least 15 million kilowatts of thermal power installations will be built each year. From the situation in the first half of 2012, the possibility of continued growth in electricity consumption is indeed higher.

"For the future demand for electricity, our company is also more controversial within the company. At present, it can only be seen while walking." The above-mentioned sources said.