GLII: Analysis of China's LED Industry Investment in 2011

According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, the investment in the planned investment of China's LED industry in 2011 was 194.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. In the year, a total of 132 new-scale investment projects (referring to investment of more than 100 million yuan) were added, an increase of 58 in number over last year. As of the end of 2011, the actual investment amount was 39.3 billion yuan, accounting for 20.2% of the total planned investment. This article will comprehensively analyze the investment situation of China's LED industry in 2011 from quarterly investment, industrial structure, regional distribution and funding sources.

In the second quarter, the planned investment amount reached a record high, accounting for 43% of the whole year.


Source: High-tech LED industry research

Source: High-tech LED industry research

2011 is definitely a year of crazy investment in China's LED industry. In the second quarter, the LED industry planned investment amounted to 83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%, accounting for 43% of the annual planned investment, pushing the LED industry investment boom to a climax. Among them, the planned investment amount in a single month in April reached 40.9 billion, a record high. Overcapacity, increased inventories, low capacity utilization, and even some companies have announced the withdrawal of LEDs, and even more serious, they have closed down directly. There are indications that LED demand in 2011 is seriously worse than expected, LED industry investment is overheated and expansion is too fast.

Not the LED industry is stagnant. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, the output value of China's LED industry reached 154 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and the output increased by more than 50%. However, this year's LED industry is a bitter. It can be seen from the output and output value that the fierce market competition has led to a sharp drop in LED prices. The most obvious is the sapphire price, which has fallen from the highest of $38/piece to the current $8/piece, from the original seller market to the present. buyer market.

An important factor in these results is the over-investment in the LED industry. The production capacity was released too fast, and the demand was not as good as expected, resulting in an increase in enterprise inventory and waste of resources, and the market was in a red sea. However, the pace of domestic LED investment has slowed down in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, the investment in LED industry planning was 76 billion, which was 36% lower than the 118.5 billion in the first half of the year.

In 2011, the investment in sapphire planning reached 37.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%.

Source: Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute

Epitaxial chips are still the hot spot for LED investment in 2011, and it is the most expensive project. In 2011, the total planned investment of the epitaxial chip project reached 89 billion, down 35% year-on-year, accounting for 46% of the total planned investment. The upstream sapphire project has planned investment of 37.2 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of 64%. The price of sapphire has dropped from the highest of 38 dollars per piece last year to the current 8 dollars per piece. The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute firmly believes that many upstream projects will be forced to withdraw or shelve in the future. In particular, the sapphire project, planning and construction capacity is much larger than the actual demand. The total planned production capacity of the LED sapphire substrate has reached 330 million. In 2011, the global demand was less than 50 million pieces, of which the demand in China was less than 10 million pieces.

Therefore, the high-tech workers should call for more research and development in the upstream, and should not be put into production. The mid-stream packaging is also the same. The downstream is focused on channel construction and improving product performance. Expanding application demand is the most effective solution to the current stage of capacity surplus. Useful ways.

In the northern region, the investment in LED industry planning in 2011 increased by 54% year-on-year.

Source: Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute

From the investment area, the investment in LED industry planning in the Yangtze River Delta in 2011 was 66.3 billion, down 30.4% from last year's 95.2 billion, accounting for 34% of the total planned investment. There are many LED upstream projects in the Yangtze River Delta region. The upstream has always been a project to burn money. The planned investment amount is as low as several hundred million, and many billions or even billions. The investment in LED planning in the northern region was 61.8 billion this year, up 54.1% from last year's 40.1 billion. This year, the North LED project is amazing. Mengxi Group's Inner Mongolia 27.5 billion LED industry chain project, Amethyst Photovoltaic Urumqi 2.9 billion sapphire project, Sichuan Desheng Group Qinghai 2 billion sapphire and polysilicon project, etc. Concentration and fierce competition, while the competition in the North is relatively less fierce, and the imperfection of the industrial chain has created many LED industrial park projects, including various industrial chains. In 2011, the North became the key planning area for LED investors.

However, the northern region does not rule out the boasting of some large projects. Therefore, it seems that the planned investment in the Pearl River Delta region is very small. Most of the Pearl River Delta projects are mid-stream and downstream projects, so the investment amount will not be large. However, in terms of actual investment, projects in the Pearl River Delta region are progressing faster than in the northern region, and there are more in number than in the northern region.

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