Electronic Semiconductor Industry "Disaster Route"

One month after the 9th-largest earthquake in northeastern Japan, the confusion and uncertainty caused by the earthquake in the electronics industry continue.
“At present, the nuclear accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have been upgraded to the highest level of 7 or increased the uncertainty of the recovery of the follow-up industrial chain. The recovery of Japan’s related industries and the subsequent impact of nuclear power leakage, restoration of power supply, reconstruction of transportation logistics It is closely related to the resumption of work/recruitment progress.” On April 12, GF Securities analyst Hui Lunlun wrote in the latest report on the occasion of the “full moon” of the Great Earthquake.
Shanghai on April 11 was full of springtime. However, Xujiahui’s merchants, which are the sales centers for digital products in Shanghai, have not yet been able to shake off the shadow caused by the earthquake in Japan. Sony, Canon, Nikon and other Japanese product distributors generally stated that due to products The shortage of supply, coupled with the price increase of some products, the customers are watching and the business after the earthquake is much worse than before the earthquake. Due to continuous aftershocks, dealers are equally concerned about the business in the coming months.
The overall share of Japan for semiconductor production equipment is 37%. Judging from the share of each device, Japan has 10 kinds of market monopoly equipment with more than 50% share. From the materials perspective, the overall share of semiconductor materials in Japan exceeds 66%. Semiconductor manufacturers in the United States, Europe, South Korea, and Taiwan, China use semiconductor production equipment in Japan, which accounts for 37% of the world’s share, and semiconductor materials in Japan, which account for more than 66% of the world’s share, and produce about 80% of the world’s semiconductor chips.

Dealer's high-end digital products prices 10%
Xujiahui Mei Luo City, a Sony store in front of deserted. The store's clerk told the Morning Post that the sales volume of the product was much lower than before the quake, and the supply was mainly affected by the earthquake. "The product of about 3,000 yuan is now going up by 300 yuan, or 10%. The price increase for customers is more cautious, the purchase is very little, there are product models out of stock, customers can not ask to buy."
Japan's Canon’s boutique, another digital camera leader, is also doing business as before. The owner of the store said, “Although it is now in the busy season, it is not as good as it used to be. The shortage of supplies, many types of products are now out of stock, especially the new out of stock is more serious. The shortage of goods prices rose by about 10%, Consumers are still mostly watching."
According to a report from a number of dealers interviewed by the Morning Post reporter, high-end models such as digital cameras and camcorders have seen a large increase, about 10%, and consumers are relatively cautious; some low-end products and products with no price increase have been sold. It is still stable. "The next step in the price trend is still unknown. At present, there has been no notice of price increases from manufacturers."
Gu Wenjun, a senior analyst at iSuppli China, said that digital products are the first to suffer from earthquakes, and some products are in tight supply. Distributors naturally raise prices, which is also a normal phenomenon. "Whether the price of digital terminal products can be stabilized or not depends on the recovery of production of related companies."
In view of the current price fluctuations of digital products in the Chinese market, relevant personages of Sony China Company stated that “the impact of the earthquake on Sony China operations is still difficult to judge. Sony is still evaluating the damage situation in Japan. It will take some time for the company to recover. Operation."
According to a source from Sony, at least eight of the ten factories that had been temporarily suspended due to the impact of the earthquake had already been restored to operations in full or in part. "After the aftershocks, we have not yet received any information updates from Tokyo. We saw from the Internet that there were two factories temporarily shut down."
Aftershocks have continued to add to the shortage of electricity supply, making it more difficult for production plants in Japan's earthquake-stricken areas to resume production. It is still unclear when it will be possible to restore a stable market supply.
On the other day, Co., Ltd., a giant of coefficient and code products, said in an interview with a reporter from the Morning Post that in the future, Canon's products will be flexible in price adjustment in the Chinese market. Canon’s written reply shows: “At present, there is no adjustment plan for Canon’s wholesale price of products and service prices. In the future, we need to adjust the price for specific circumstances. We will announce the price separately. Due to the earthquake, some products and parts may be delayed in the future. Case."
Canon expects that all factories will achieve full production at the end of April. Canon also stated that Canon firms and factories that have not been directly harmed in Japan are limited by the restrictions on power supply and purchase conditions for raw materials, components and other materials, and the company cannot continue to adjust only part of its production activities.
On the other day, Nikon Co., a giant of the code camera giant, was severely hit by the Japanese earthquake. Due to careful consideration, Nikon stated that it is still unable to make a judgment on the future price trend of Nikon digital products in the Chinese market.

Mobile phone makers worry about BT resin "out of stock"
Global 15% to 20% of electronic products are produced in Japan. Jean-Philippe Dauvin, a Paris-based consulting firm, said that 30% of electronic gadgets sold worldwide, 40% of cameras and cameras, and 15% of televisions are produced in Japan.
As Japan controls the global supply of high-end electronic components, the earthquake has had a negative impact on global electronics manufacturers, and Chinese companies have to seek alternative suppliers.
According to the Asahi Shimbun report, at least 5 kinds of electronic components of the Apple iPad tablet PC are produced by Japanese manufacturers. It is difficult to deliver on time due to the earthquake, including flash memory chips produced by Toshiba Corporation and AKMS Semiconductor Inc. An electronic compass produced. In particular, the iPad 2's display can only use products imported from Japan, so it is highly probable that production will be reduced.
In addition, regarding the production of BT resin for printed circuit boards, about 90% of the BT resin in the world currently comes from Hitachi Kasei and Mitsubishi Gas Chemicals because of Japanese patents and technology thresholds. The earthquake has caused the world's largest BT resin manufacturer Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (50% market share) and Hitachi Chemical to stop production. (Editor's note: Printed circuit boards made of BT resin have high heat resistance, moisture resistance, and low loss.)
Mitsubishi Gas Chemicals expects to restore 50% of its production capacity by the end of April. At the beginning of May, BT resin materials will return to its pre-earthquake production capacity. 80% of its production capacity is given to Apple, and other manufacturers can only share the remaining 5% of production capacity.
Hitachi expects to resume 80% of its capacity supply before mid-April.
"Although the two major BT suppliers are currently claiming capacity recovery, they have not yet achieved delivery. The tight supply of BT resin will indirectly affect consumer electronics including smartphones and computers (tablets) by affecting PCBs, substrates and packaging. Supply." April 17, Chang Chih Securities analyst Chen Zhijian wrote in the latest report, according to its grasp of the situation, some Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers BT resin inventory about a month or so. Although the two major BT suppliers are currently claiming capacity recovery, they have not yet achieved delivery, and it is unknown whether there will be any change in the later period.
The terminal's concern has started. Nokia, the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer, said that due to the shortage of imported parts in Japan, some production lines may suspend production. In 2010, 15% of Nokia's mobile phone parts were purchased using the yen. Sony Ericsson also revealed that the earthquake may affect its supply chain.

Laptop maker notebook shipments have little effect on shipments. Chinese domestic companies also feel the impact of the Japanese earthquake on their operations.
On April 8, RoryRead, president and chief operating officer of Lenovo Group, said in an interview that the company has filled the supply chain gap that was expected to occur between mid-May and June. Lenovo had no problem with the supply of main parts. However, the supply of second- and third-line accessories such as small controllers on notebook computers may be difficult.
On April 15th, the Companq computer company of Taiwan's notebook computer company also stated that there are still "visibility" for orders in May and June. (Editor's note: The Japanese market accounts for about 5% of the overall notebook market. Dell and Acer have stated their positions in late March and early April. The Japanese earthquake has had limited impact on shipments in the second and third quarters.)

Before the earthquake, the global production capacity of liquid crystal manufacturers was oversupply He Shiyou, executive vice president and executive director of ZTE Corporation (000063), a giant of China’s telecommunications equipment supply industry, said on March 24th that Japan’s earthquake and tsunami caused the company’s supply problems. The problem will continue in the next three to six months.
“High-end components such as battery cells, storage devices and liquid crystal displays are facing supply shortages,” said He Shiyou. ZTE has two or three alternative suppliers in general, so the supply problem may not last long. He Shiyou also said that the component prices of alternative suppliers may increase, but the company will not change its performance expectations.
Another source said that Sharp has decided to suspend the production of its 8th-generation and 10th-generation LCD panel plants because the large earthquake has affected its sales in the terminal market. Sharp's 8th generation line factory and 10th generation line LCD panel factory are located in Kansai area of ​​Japan, but Sharp still suffers.
Sharp said on April 12 that the company’s two LCD panel factories in Kameyama in Mie Prefecture and Sakai in Osaka will resume production in early May.
Sharp spokesman Miyuki Nakayama said that the company has sufficient LCD panel inventory, which can support about a month. She said that the company’s TV inventory is also abundant. One of the reasons is that demand for TV in Japan has been relatively weak, especially after the earthquake.
On April 13, IHSiSuppli said that due to the drop in TV prices, the price of large-size LCD panels in April may have fallen slightly by 0.5% from the previous month.
According to industry sources, the production cycle of Japanese-brand TVs assembled in China is generally around one year, and it is rarely influenced by panel supply. Even if it does, it will take at least three to four months before it will be reflected in the price of the product.
According to available data, Japan occupies a pivotal position in the global liquid crystal panel supply chain, occupying the production of components used in liquid crystal panels—glasses, color filters, polarizers, cold cathode fluorescent lamps, and light-emitting diodes. A very high share. (Editor's note: Before the Great East Japan Earthquake, the global LED chip production capacity was oversupply. LED-related companies, TFT-LCD industry-related companies are mainly concentrated in Osaka, Kyushu, Nagoya and other places, affected by the earthquake is relatively small.)
Taiwanese companies such as Chi Mei Optoelectronics, AU Optronics and other LCD panel companies source raw materials mainly from Japan, and according to industry practice, the LCD panel industry adopts “zero inventory” management. After the earthquake in Japan, related LCD panel companies are seeking alternative supplies. Business.

The progress of the wafer manufacturer's resumption of production is better than expected. “The earthquake will cause the semiconductor production equipment to need recalibration and adjustment, and it will take some time for the production capacity to return to normal level.” Analyst Yao Hongguang of Huatai United Securities analysts, the earthquake and the resulting power outage will be In the short term, the production capacity will be significantly affected.
According to reports, the chip factory is designed according to the magnitude 10 seismic strength. However, due to the high precision required for chip production, the chip production line needs to be shut down after the earthquake and the equipment is calibrated and calibrated. This process is slightly longer for the wafer production line than the package test line, but can be completed in a few days. This time, the Japanese semiconductor industry is paralyzed that "since the nuclear reactor leaks, the power supply is unlikely to recover quickly." More crucially, aftershocks continue.
Japan is the world’s leading supplier of wafers for chip processing materials. After the earthquake, the production of some of the world’s largest silicon wafer makers was hindered, raising concerns that shipments of chips and electronics may be delayed by wafers later this year. Impact. According to data from IHSiSuppli on March 22, Japan accounts for about 60% of global wafer production. After the earthquake, Shin-Etsu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. was located in Shirakawa, Fukushima Prefecture, as well as MEMCElectronic Materials Inc. Utsunomiya factory stopped production. The combined wafer shipments of the two plants accounted for 25% of global supply.
The original form of a silicon wafer is the size and shape of a dinner plate, which is the basis for drawing and capturing the chip. According to news from Japan, the above two damaged factories are currently saying that the resumption of production of their factories is better than expected, and production will be restarted in the near future. Previously, the market generally expected these factories to gradually resume production and ship in May.
A Shin-Etsu spokesman also said that the company is currently working hard to produce more wafers at other factories in Japan and overseas. The spokesman also said that the company has factories in the United States, Scotland, Taiwan and Malaysia.
MEMC said that the 12-inch silicon fab production is scheduled to fully recover in mid-May, and that the company's 8-inch wafer production capacity will be moved to Malaysia Ipoh ahead of schedule (targeted for the third quarter).

The chip foundry's inventory can be used for about 1 month. Gu Wenjun said on April 11th that SMIC, TSMC and other chip foundry companies' wafers are all purchased from Japan. Current foundries are digesting their own inventory and agents. The inventory. "The existing inventory can be used for about 1 month."
On April 1, the chief executive officer of South Korea’s chip foundry Hynix Semiconductor, O. C. Kwon said that the company is working with a number of silicon wafer suppliers and that the wafer inventory is sufficient for 45 days.
On April 7, another chip foundry giant, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Zhang Zhongmou, downgraded its forecast for global semiconductor sales growth this year, from 7% to 4%. Zhang Zhongmou said that the earthquake in Japan will have a certain impact on the performance of the chip industry in the second quarter.
“In the short term, due to the aggressive stocking of big manufacturers and the effect of agents picking goods, it is inevitable that silicon wafer prices will rise in the second quarter, but with the next 2-3 months, silicon wafer manufacturers’ production capacity will gradually return to the pre-earthquake. Level, while Taiwan's major semiconductor manufacturers still have 1.5 to 2 months of inventory at the end of the first quarter, silicon wafer supply and demand situation may slow down.” Chen Zhijian said.

DRAM chip manufacturers worldwide shipments fell 1.1%
In addition to wafers, Japan supplies more than one-third of the world's NAND flash memory (currently used primarily for mobile devices such as iPads and smart phones) and 14% of DRAM chips (computer system memory).
In general, more than 30 devices and 19 materials are required to produce semiconductor chips. As long as one device or one material cannot be supplied, the semiconductor chip cannot be manufactured. The overall share of Japan for semiconductor production equipment is 37%. From the materials perspective, the overall share of semiconductor materials in Japan exceeds 66%.
Before the great earthquake, Japan's flash memory production accounted for about 36% of the world's total, and DRAM memory production accounted for about 14% of the world's total. On April 6, IHSiSuppli said that the Japanese earthquake has boosted the price of computer storage chips, and global semiconductor sales this year may increase by 7% to $325.2 billion. The company’s sales growth forecast for February this year was 5.8.
"The quake will cause global DRAM shipments to drop by 1.1% in March and April," said Mike Howard, chief analyst of DRAM and memory at iSuppli. iSuppli believes that the average price of DRAM contracts in April may rise by 2%. It was expected to fall by 3% to 4%. The pricing pressure in the second half of this year is expected to ease.

According to public information, after the earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 40-50 of the 140 semiconductor factories in Japan were forced to close.
In Japan's large-scale earthquake-stricken area, eight plants of Japan's Renesas Electronics, the world's fifth-largest chip maker, are currently recovering to varying degrees. The company is the largest manufacturer of microcontrollers worldwide.
Semiconductor giant Texas Instruments gave the most detailed information about the suspension of work under the influence of the earthquake. It said that the chip factory in Miho, Japan, is unlikely to resume full shipment before September of this year. The chip factory's revenue accounted for about 10% of Texas Instruments' total revenue in 2010.
Another US production giant Onsemiconductor Corp, which produces various application software chips. (On Semiconductor) Six factories in the earthquake-stricken area in Japan could not produce due to power cuts.
Yao Hongguang pointed out that the earthquake in Japan affected the production and operation of multiple semiconductor chip factories, causing the market to worry about the short-term surge in prices of affected devices.
Specific to the terminal, investors do not have to worry too much. On April 11, Shawn DuBravac, an economist at the Consumer Electronics Association, said that because of the fierce competition in electronic products, prices will not increase. Due to the low manufacturing cost of most of the shortage of spare parts, even if the price increases, the increase will not be significant. The shortage will end by the end of summer.